Risk Disclosure

The most important page on this site. Read it twice. If anything here is unacceptable to you, do not apply.

01 The Bot Can Lose All Your Capital

Polymarket BTC 15-minute markets are binary. Every trade resolves to either $1 per share (win) or $0 per share (loss). There is no partial outcome. There is no early exit. There is no stop-loss.

Once an order fills, it is held until the market settles on-chain against an oracle price. A losing trade is a total loss of the staked amount. A long enough losing streak can take your wallet to zero.

02 Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results

Any win-rate, profit chart, or backtest you see on this site is a historical snapshot. Markets evolve. Strategies decay. Edges that worked last month may not work next month. The dashboard tells you what happened — not what will happen.

The Operator may, has, and will continue to modify the strategy. New versions are not warranted to perform like old ones.

03 Technical Risks

WONNY is software connected to other software. Things break:

Bugs in the bot can cause missed trades, wrong-direction trades, or oversized trades.
RPC endpoints on Polygon can fail or stall.
Binance data feeds can disconnect or deliver bad data.
Polymarket's CLOB can go down or reject orders.
Gas spikes on Polygon can delay or fail transactions.
Encrypted wallet keys, despite reasonable security, could be compromised.

The Operator monitors and patches issues but offers no SLA and no uptime guarantee.

04 Strategy Risks

15-minute binary trading is a high-frequency, edge-driven product. The bot trades dozens of times per day at small per-trade edges. Small edges are fragile. The conditions that produce the edge — orderflow patterns, liquidity profiles, volatility regimes — can disappear in days.

The Operator may modify the strategy, pause it, or change risk parameters at any time without prior notice. Your bot may behave differently tomorrow than it did yesterday.

05 Market Risks

You are exposed to: BTC volatility regime changes, sudden liquidity drops on Polymarket, oracle disputes, on-chain settlement reorganizations, exchange wash trading distorting signal quality, and broad crypto-market shocks that move BTC further and faster than the bot expects.

06 Operational Risks

WONNY is operated by a small team — currently two people. There is no 24/7 support desk. There is no formal incident-response SLA. The Operator may need to pause trading without warning to handle a bug, an outage, an exchange issue, or a regulatory question.

If the Operator is unavailable for an extended period, your bot may sit idle. Your funds remain in your wallet either way.

07 Regulatory Risks

The legal status of Polymarket, of automated trading on Polymarket, and of services like WONNY is unsettled. Specifically:

Polymarket geo-blocks certain jurisdictions including, depending on interpretation, US persons.
Operating an automated trading service for others may, depending on jurisdiction and characterization, require registration as an investment adviser, commodity-pool operator, commodity trading advisor, money transmitter, or other regulated entity.
The Operator does not currently hold any of those registrations.
Regulators may at any time determine that the Service must be modified, restricted, or shut down.

You are solely responsible for determining whether your use is legal where you live. The Operator is consulting counsel and may change the structure of the Service in response to legal guidance.

08 Fee Impact

The 15% platform fee on profit raises the breakeven bar. On a hypothetical 50/50 trade at 50¢:

Worked example Stake $100 at 50¢ → if you win, you receive $200 for a gross profit of $100. Platform fee = 15% of $100 = $15. Net profit = $85. If you lose, you lose the full $100 and pay no fee. At equal stakes, you need to win roughly 54% of the time just to break even after fees — not 50%.

Cheaper entries lower the breakeven bar; more expensive entries raise it. Fees compound against a marginal edge.

09 Tax Liability

You are solely responsible for reporting and paying taxes on your trading activity in your jurisdiction. The Service provides an exportable trade ledger as a courtesy. The Operator does not file taxes for you and does not provide tax advice. Consult a qualified tax professional.

10 Loss Scenarios

To make the risk concrete:

Scenario A · Five-trade losing streak You deposit $1,000. Default sizing risks about $150 per trade. Five losses in a row → -$750 → balance $250. This is a real outcome the strategy has historically produced.

Scenario B · Drawdown A 40-60% drawdown from peak balance, sustained over weeks, is well within the range of normal variance for this kind of strategy. You should be psychologically prepared to watch your balance fall by half before recovering — or not recover.

Scenario C · Underperformance Over any given month or quarter the bot may earn less than holding BTC, less than holding USDC, or less than zero. There is no expectation that the bot beats a buy-and-hold benchmark over any specific horizon.

11 Suitability Statement

Only deposit funds you can afford to lose completely. WONNY is not a savings account. WONNY is not investment advice. WONNY is not suitable for retirement assets, education funds, rent money, emergency funds, or any capital you depend on. If losing the full amount in your trading wallet would change your life in a way you cannot accept, do not deposit that amount.

12 Acknowledgment

By checking the "I agree" box on the application form, by accepting an invite, or by funding a trading wallet, you confirm that you have read this Risk Disclosure, that you understand the risks described above, that you accept those risks in full, and that you are using only capital you can afford to lose.

If any part of this disclosure is unclear or unacceptable to you, do not proceed.